- 2022-01-16
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全球最大对沖基金之一的桥水（Bridgewater）创办人、有「避险基金之王」称号的达里欧（Ray Dalio）
Ladies and gentlemen, to join the Prime Minister in conversation
女士们，先生们，将与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪展开对话的
Please welcome to stage The Founder, Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridge Water Associations, Mr. Ray Dalio
是桥水基金的创始人、董事长兼联合首席投资官：有请瑞·达利欧先生上台
Welcome, let’s just jump right into it
In our 15min, which is way too short, I’d like to divide it in half
And get your perspective of the world as a whole
And then, focus on the other half of your perspective of India so that we can learn more about it
而后聊聊你眼中的印度，让在座听众更好地了解这个国家
But before I do, rather than knowing what you think I’d like to a little focus on how you think
但在了解你的这些想法之前，我想先了解一下你的思维方式
We were talking before about meditation. We both mediate.
And it has an effect on how you think I think.
So I wonder whether you can share some thoughts about how you think and, how that pertains to looking at the world
因此我想知道你能否分享一下自己的思维方法，以及这种思考方式与世界观的关联
You’ve asked a very important question
It is true that whether it’s a man’s life journey or a journey of health, conflicts at every other step is a natural phenomenon
事实是，无论是在人的生命之途亦或健康之途中，冲突自然会不断发生
So at that time we should develop a mechanism for conflict resolution
I can vouch from my experience and you as well, being a person related to meditation.
We know very well that meditation plays a vital role in having a balanced thoughts, a balanced life and the right view of the world
When you observe the situations by detaching yourself
You end up walking towards the direction of balanced thoughts and meaningful decisions
During the entire process, the people who are associated with regular meditation feel a particular sense of energy within themselves
在整个过程中，定期冥想的人能感受到自己浑身上下充沛的能量感
So, yes, you said right, that meditation has its own importance
But, as far as the world’s condition is in question, we are seeing that conversations on peace have mostly existed during this and the previous century
而当我们谈到天下大势，关于和平的对话多数发生在上世纪与本世纪
Whereas, the most number of conflicts also happened during this and the previous century
As a result of which holier than thou, the idea of superiority, rejection of the existence of equal life and everyone should grow together,
出于占据道德制高点的优越感，人们拒绝接受众生皆平等、携手共成长的现实
such lack in ideas becomes the cause of us ending up in struggles
Our road to growth also became attaining victory, demanding others.
Amidst all this, conflicts rose.
I believe, in this world, true thinking can help us find a way out
Meditation tends to bring one above circumstances and look down on them
And I wonder if we can talk about the world from the perspective of five major issues
It seems to me that in the world, particularly in the developed world there’s a great deal of conflict you talked about.
在我看来，全球范围内，特别是在发达国家中，爆发了你提及的诸多冲突
That the rich and the poor, the capitalists and the socialists, those different values
富人与穷人之间，资本主义者与社会主义者之间，不同价值观之间的冲突
So conflict, as it affects capitalism, as it affects the way we are with each other is one dimension
所以，第一个维度是冲突，它影响着资本主义，影响着我们相处的方式
Second dimension is the international changing of the world order
The rise of powers, India, China, and others and the associated conflicts with those
The third is a reduced effectiveness of reserved currency countries to be able to ease their monetary policy
第三个维度是储备货币国家实行宽松货币政策的效力不断削弱
So there is not as much stimulation
The forth, that you touch on is climate
And the fifth is technology
I want leave that open to you to describe what you think the emerging world order will be like in light of those things and feel free to touch on any of them if you like
You’re right that there was a time when a bipolar world existed and because of this, every other country was part of some group
你说的对，曾经这是个两极世界，每一个国家都归属于某一个阵营
Understanding the situation had also become a tradition
Today the world has changed
Today we have a multipolar world
Today every country of the world is interdependent and inter connected
Each country has its own reasonable needs and its technology plays a role in it
每一个国家都有合理的需求，都有自己的技术在世界上大放异彩
And in such conditions, view of the world three, four decades ago has ended
在这样的形势下，四十年前对第三世界的看法已成为历史
We have to change our mind
Today the importance of the smallest of the countries is increasing
Everyone is required somewhere
That is why we have chosen to strengthen this multipolar world
We may have a myriad of mindsets
We may be socialist, capitalist, whichever thinking we may have but ultimately for the welfare of mankind
Wu must focus on what we are contributing towards it
There was a time when power was associated with expansionism
The number of regions you own, the number of regions you can own with your power
与你拥有多少领土、在你权力范围内能够拥有多少领土挂钩
On the basis of such expansionism the world power was analyzed.
Today, evolutionism is growing over expansionism
What great height are you achieving in growth, what innovation are you finding,
what changes are you bringing among your people,
how important the intervention of changing technology is happening
how you manage to vertically uplift your region,
and the importance of doing good is going to increase
and therefore, healthy competition: we move towards evolutionism and grow vertically
因此形成了健康的竞争模式：向着进化主义的方向迈进，垂直发展
It we grow vertically then its light will be reflected upon our underdeveloped public
如果我们能过垂直发展，那么发展的光辉就能惠及我们贫穷落后的公众
This is why we have to work in this direction
On the other side, within the last two, three centuries, the growth rate in the field of technology witnessed by the world
另一方面，在过去的两、三个世纪中，世界见证了技术领域的增长速度
has now increased profoundly, compared to before
但与现在的飞速增长相比，过去的成就也不过是小巫见大巫
Earlier, the progress in technology was in bits and pieces but nowadays, there’s no single aspect of life which is not driven by technology
先前，技术领域的进步是跬步慢行，而当今生活的方方面面都由技术驱动
Therefore, we have to train our upcoming generation for innovation with human compassion because you don’t want to create robots
因此，下一代人必须接受人性化的创新训练，因为我们不想创造机器人
Instead, we want to create living humans.
To present the world with compassion and technology,
to create a balance between human values would be a great responsibility
And I believe that the world will have to focus a lot on that
While you describe what we must do, I wonder your thoughts about whether we will do it
and how we have to approach that
那么你认为我们是否会去付诸行动？又该采取怎样的方法去解决？
So when we say ‘We’, it’s each individual
So let’s look at some of them
We have the trade conflict, we have a technology conflict, we have a capital and currency conflict going on
and we have geo-political conflicts going on
we don’t have a world organization or world rulebook
I have to be a pragmatist and you’re having to be a pragmatist
How will we work together
How will that play out in your mind
You have described the present war in exact words
Just the way the kinds of war have increased, in the same way the reasons for war have also increased
Water as well as land are the cause for war
Sky and space are also causes for war
We are digging new arenas for war and this is a sign of mankind’s weakness
我们不断地为战争发掘新的角斗场，这暴露了人性的弱点
This is true that when the UN was formed, an institution which would act as a catalytic agent in conflict resolution
确实是寄望于这样一家机构能在解决国家冲突时扮演催化剂的角色
but unfortunately we failed to develop the UN as an institution
After 70 years, it felt that the UN would undergo reforms and bring a change but it did not happen
70年过去了，联合国似乎是要经历一些改革做出一些改变，然而最后都成徒劳
The UN would now become 75 years old
I would want every powerful country to join and determine the nature, norms and the responsibilities of other countries for the reformed UN in 2021
与其他国家一道共同决定2021年改革后的联合国的性质、规范与责任
If we satisfy ourselves with the UN’s role during an epidemic or a natural calamity
如果我们都只是满足于联合国在瘟疫或自然灾害期间发挥的作用
then uniting the world would not happen
Another unfortunate situation is that powerful people have taken to forming the UN as an instrument instead of an institution,
另一个遗憾是，有权有势的人将联合国改造为一种工具而不是一家机构
because of which the UN failed to provide a neutral, global, rule-based contribution
因此联合国无法做出不偏不倚的、惠及全球的、基于规则的贡献
Where does conflict begin?
In my opinion, some people think so highly of themselves that they don’t believe in law, whereas some people are buried under the burden of law
在我看来，一些人自视甚高蔑视法律，而另一些人则不堪法律的重负
If we want to run the world, then we ought to follow the rules
The universe is also working because every element like the Sun obey its rules, the Moon follows its rules, the Earth follows its rules and none of them break the rules
宇宙运动自有其法，太阳、月亮和地球均循法而动，无一例外
Similarly, the countries of the world would will have to obey global rules and we should act collectively against violation of rules
同样地，世界各国也应遵守全球规则，团结一致打击违规行为
Only then we can isolate such a power and try bringing them onto the correct path
That’s one of the reasons I started with the topic of meditation to rise above it and hopefully deal with the common good and the capacity to do that
这样才能超脱自身，以期能够正视共同利益，并以共同利益为纲行事
I hope your musts get accomplished
Turing to India, one of the things I think that you’ve done, well you’ve done many remarkable things
回到印度，我想谈谈你实现的成就之一，好吧，你已经实现了太多非凡之事
but one of them is to represent all of the people in India or the vast majority
但其中一件事是，你成功地代表了全印度的人民，或他们当中的绝大多数
You’re not representing the poor or the rich
You’re not representing on faction in relationship to anther
You’ve joined the country together
You’ve made tremendous accomplishments
You’ve brought something like 500 million toilets and, you’ve brought water
and you will bring water to all of those people
And you’re changing their wellbeing in a united way
So you don’t seem to encounter the same political challenges that a lot of leaders face
You seem to have brought it together
And you’re creating an economy that is making a great deal of progress for all of the people in a broader way
你正在创造一个快速发展、能够广泛造福全体人民的经济体
I’d like to get your sense of what is it like to be in your shoes
I don’t have a political background. I come from a very common family
I have not seen poverty in books, instead I have lived in it
I have lived my life in poverty
I have gotten here by selling tea on railway platforms, and therefore feeling this pain comes naturally to me，
我靠着在铁路月台上卖茶来到这里，因而贫困的伤痛于我是再自然不过的体验
that my strength, my time and my work benefits them
I have managed to eliminate poverty in India at a very steady rate in a few years
My method to eliminate poverty is by empowering the poor
If we give power to the poor, then they themselves would come out of it
That is why there are various schemes
Second thing is that the poor need dignity
When I give them a toilet, I’m not giving them a facility, I’m giving them dignity
当我向他们提供厕所的时候，不仅仅是为他们提供一个设施，更是在给他们尊严
When I open a person’s bank account, his balance does not matter
The fact that he opened the bank account is his dignity
That even though I am poor, I also go to the bank like a rich person
This empowerment, this dignity, changes his thinking
and I have targeted that and have achieved success in my country
My inner satisfaction is that the poor are saying that they are going to eradicate poverty.
Nothing beats this satisfaction.
That is why I took this work
I don’t have the nature of power, I don’t accept it.
I accept the nature of service
Wherever you are, service must be your prime nature.
I keep trying and with the blessing of the elders
I keep trying to utilize my power with this nature of service
Help others and bring about change
The most important point here is when India undergoes a change, then it’s not just a personal change.
最重要的是，当印度经历变革的时候，这不仅是一种个人层面的改变
When I build toilets, the open defecation-free society is built, then the numbers of the world also change
我建造厕所的时候，是在建设一个没有随地便溺的开放社会
If I remove poverty from my country, then the world poverty numbers also change
如果我在印度消除了贫困，那么世界贫困人口的数字也会随之变化
In other words, a change in India adds to the change in the world
This satisfies me that the task I have been given of my country leads me to change the world as well
我的国家对我的嘱托同样在引领我改变世界，我对此深感满足
Like the world has decided to become TB free by 2030, we have decided to do it by 2025
比如世界卫生组织决定2030年彻底消灭结核病，而印度决定在2025年就实现这一目标
If we achieve this, then the world won’t have to wait till 2030
如果我们实现了目标，那么全世界都不必等到2030年
Maybe they succeed it by 2028
This means that India’s contribution is for the global good
It would play a major role and this satisfaction is experienced by me
One more question because we’re out of time
Your combination of human capital and technology is very interesting
In much of the world technology is replacing jobs and it increases the wealth gap
在世界大多数国家，技术正在取代人力，贫富差距不断拉大
I’d like your thoughts on combining your human capital and raising the capacity of human capital with technology,
and, using that as a combination to raise India
最后将人力资本与技术紧密结合来提升印度上，你有什么样的见解
You have asked a very good question and it is very true.
India is a very fortunate country as 65% of our population is below the age of 35 years
印度是一个非常幸运的国家，65%的人口都小于35岁
The necessity of skill development and human resource development as well on a global level, it produces a great strength
在全球层面上同样需要技能与人力资源的开发，这么做会带来巨大的优势
When I’m in Saudi Arabia and I meet the majestic king, he very proudly tells me that
“Brother! I love you very much and do you know why?
Because I was taught by an Indian teacher in my childhood.”
This means the human capital of India, taught the king of Saudi Arabia.
This is such a great power and great use
I believe that we should work on the larger good, with human capital or with any other resources
我相信我们应造福于更广大人民的利益，无论以人力资本或任何其他资源的形式
But we should bring about change within the time that suits.
Create upgradations and if possible, then complete them before time
If space is going to be a global interest, then I should also focus on its development
如果太空的开发符合全球利益，那么我就应该将精力集中在太空开发上
As you know, India’s space program is different than the world’s space program
The expense of India’ Moon journey is lesser than a Hollywood film
This is a very big achievement in itself
This means my human resource managed to complete the Moon journey with lesser expenditure than the expenditure of a Hollywood film
这意味着我的人力资源成功将印度的登月成本压缩得比好莱坞大片还低
This means my human recourse capacity has given it a new power
This is why, we should prepare such manpower that utilize minimum global resources and does not burden the world capabilities
We should create a manpower that sees ahead of time as well
Prepare technology with innovation spirit
Nowadays, I am competing my youth with the world youth in a hackathon
今天，我致力于让印度的年轻人与全球的年轻人一起征战黑客马拉松
because meeting of mind is needed in global upcoming leaderships
Similarly, I am joining the youth of the startups around the world with my country’s startup youth
同理，我致力于促成全球创业领域的年轻人与印度的年轻创业者之间的合作
so that the global manpower is bridged during the student age
Even if they are in small numbers, I am giving my attention to it
I believe that this approach would emerge as a power in coming years which would cause a change in the world
我深信未来几年，这种做法将会以一种新力量的形式兴起，为整个世界带来变革
Well, thank you for your perspective and also, thank you for what you are doing.
ILinku
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